Lower Voter Turnout: ‘400 paar’ looks remote for NDA

The second phase of polling in 13 states ended on Friday. More than 1,200 candidates are in fray in this phase, contesting for 88 of the 543 seats in Lok Sabha.

By comparison, India’s 2019 Lok Sabha elections registered the highest-ever voter turnout — 67.11 percent while now it is around 55 per cent. What does this indicate? This is the million dollar question now.

Voters’ relative apathy has surprised some political analysts, but they say that the BJP remains a front-runner. But if the polling percentage in first two phases is any indication, ‘Ab Ki Baar 400 paar’ is difficult. Analysts feel that it may stop around 300 paar.

All eyes are fixed on politically crucial states that will play a key role in the formation of the next government as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eyeing for a hat-trick. The voter turnout generally is low during Lok Sabha polls as compared to Assembly elections in any state.

The extreme heat wave conditions this time of the year and the joyous surge which is missing are certainly a cause for concern. But then politics is a dynamic situation and it would be premature to hazard any guess at this stage.

The opposition parties including the Congress are pinning all hopes on the minority votes and strongly believe that Modi had helped them by creating a controversy when he said that the Congress party, if voted to power, would distribute the country’s wealth among “infiltrators” and “those who have more children,” in an apparent reference to the Muslim community.

There are some parties like the BRS in Telangana and the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh which feel that they would get some importance in Lok Sabha if Modi-led BJP gets around 250 seats. But analysts feel that these parties are in for a disappointment for two reasons. One, they themselves are not in a position to get good numbers. The BRS, it is said, may not win more than two Lok Sabha seats and if the Congress or BJP touches two digit figure in Telangana, there is a possibility of a couple of MPs who won on behalf of BRS jumping the fence. In Andhra Pradesh, the situation is still fluid. According to present indications, the ruling YSRCP may not get more than 5 Lok Sabha seats. Though the opposition parties are getting good response and the people seem to be in a mood for change this time, there are a couple of administrative factors which raise certain doubts on the ability of the Election Commission of India in ensuring free and fair polls.

The official machinery though technically is under the control of ECI, it continues to work as per the instructions of the state government. Though the NDA alliance is surging ahead, the delay in taking quick action like changing the Chief Secretary or the DGP is causing concern to the opposition parties including state BJP. The NDA alliance hopes that ECI may take necessary steps before the second visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Andhra Pradesh which is scheduled to be held on May 7 and 8 tentatively. It may be recalled that his first visit saw how the police did not cooperate and how the protocol was violated. Even the state BJP leaders submitted many complaints regarding this to the ECI. They are worried that this delay could send a wrong message that BJP was playing a double game in AP.

Coming back to national politics, Uttar Pradesh has always been considered as the green channel to the seat of power. It is the most populous state with 240 million people.

UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats. BJP’s impressive performance in UP in the 2014 and 2019 elections along with NDA partners easily crossed a simple majority of 272 seats.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 62 seats in Uttar Pradesh. It is also a BJP-ruled state. The grand old Congress party had won only a single seat. 2024 polls in UP has become more interesting because the BJP feels that the construction of Ram temple at Ayodhya and the grand consecration ceremony would rain votes for them. The bloc INDI hopes that the controversial remarks of Modi would help them get the Muslim and anti-Modi votes.

Modi, who is known as a wordsmith, on Thursday appealed to the people of UP, saying “I have come here to seek your blessings for a developed India.” He said, “Some forces don’t like India’s rising power ... and that’s why a coalition of over two dozen parties have come together against Modi,” he said and called upon people to bring back his government in these elections “for stopping these forces, for a bright future of the country and for security of the country.” At a poll rally in Bihar, PM Modi doubled down on his attack on the grand old party for spreading lies and canards and devising a fake propaganda that former PM Manmohan Singh never spoke about ‘priority for Muslims on resources’. He said that the Congress and INDIA bloc stood exposed after the emergence of Manmohan Singh’s old video.

“When I speak about preferential treatment for Muslims during the Congress-led UPA regimes, when I call out discriminatory governance by the INDI bloc, they start losing their temper,” he said. The whole ecosystem of Cong-led Opposition has got agitated and incensed with him for speaking the truth and they have been after him for the past one week. “First, they spread lies that Manmohan Singh didn’t speak about preferential treatment for Muslims. But, a video has emerged which shows what he said about Muslims. Today, Congress and its ecosystem is flustered and in panic mode over the emergence of this video,” Modi claimed. He also issued an open challenge to the Opposition to prove him wrong on the Congress double standards and said that they must refrain from pressure tactics as this is not going to yield any results.

India’s richest state in the west, Maharashtra accounts for the second-highest number of Lok Sabha seats at 48, and is voting in the five of the seven phases. But the lowest voter turnout here on Friday certainly is a cause of concern.

In 2019, the BJP won 23 seats in Maharashtra while its ally Shiv Sena won 18 seats. But a few months later, Shiv Sena – which like the BJP draws support from its traditional Hindu voters – joined hands with the Congress party and others to oust Modi’s party from the state government. What happened is history, the Shiv Sena was split and major faction joined BJP alliance.

West Bengal is another state to be watched. Mamata Banerjee refused to have any seat adjustment with INDI alliance and is giving a tough fight to the BJP. In 2019, BJP had made significant inroads into West Bengal. The TMC was down to 24 from 34 in 2014. The BJP has been attacking the TMC on issues like corruption. The TMC chief is trying to project BJP as “anti-Bengal and anti-people.” She alleges BJP does not care for basic necessities of people such as “roti, kapada aur makan” and is bent on implementing draconian laws like a citizenship law seen by critics as anti-Muslim, and the Uniform Civil Code which aims to replace religion-specific civil laws with the same set of rules for everyone.

Other states where the BJP has high-stakes include Tamil Nadu, where the BJP could not win even a single one of the 39 seats in 2019, Southern Karnataka where it bagged 25 out of 28 seats, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in the Hindi-speaking belt as well as Gujarat.

Five more phases to go and all political parties, particularly, the BJP and Congress will have to sweat it out more and more to outwit each other.